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Originally Posted by Sordini
The condition of the article was that there was no hit on the flop. These points lead me to think you wish to discuss “Continuation Sized Bets” which would be a far longer article than the one above.
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I've no urge to restrict this to just a discussion of continuation-sized bets, but I think it's got to be part of the whole approach to continuation betting in general. Continuation betting is a move that I think of as an obfuscation technique, allowing you both to steal pots when you've raised and not hit, and get value for bets made when you do hit. You can't allow there to be too discernible a difference between your value bets and your bluffs.
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 (Heads up) I would NEVER give an opponent 3 – 1 calling odds from a continuation bet. Regardless of if I hit on the flop or not. That is ridiculous negative EV. Continuation bets are sufficient value to protect you from flushes & straights. The should give your opponents bad odds to call.
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Clearly your continuation bets are larger than mine! I've taken the 1/2 pot bet size directly from Harrington, and found it useful. Obviously you should vary the size here and there, but I like the 1 in 3 success rate to break even. I'll assume, since you haven't specified, that your continuation bets are more around the size of the pot. While this further reduces your opponent's calling odds, it's true also that not every continuation bet can succeed. Consider the stipulations of your article - AJ, raised pot, flop no help, OOP. The continuation bet is made since you were the pre-flop aggressor. If the continuation bet is going to succeed, I think it will succeed if it is half the pot or 5 times the pot. Likewise if it is going to fail. Note that when I say this, I'm referring to the ideal flop for a continuation bet, something like T 6 2 rainbow. If your opponent has, say, AQ, what bet can they call? Your larger continuation bet seems to me unnecessary. Conversely, if your opponent has flopped a set of sixes, I don't really see where you can make any bet that will win the pot. Even if you have the discipline to give it up when your CB is called, it's still more money than you would have spent betting half the pot, with the same result. Again for this point I am assuming the opponent is netiher particularly good nor particularly aggressive, either of which would give me pause before making that bet.
So when you say you would NEVER give the 3 to 1 calling odds, I agree when there's a straight or flush draw out there it's not ideal. But your break-even point now depends on the bet succeeding half the time. Can you honestly say that a pot-sized bet on the flop wins the pot there and then half the time? Even in a heads-up pot that hasn't been my experience...
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My dismissive stance to tournaments is well known in regards to preflop strategy. Yours differs greatly from mine. You know this.
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I wonder what Hellish image of my pf strategy you have in your mind... I play 9-handed cash tables and generally hover around 20 -22%. MTT's I'm more on the 18-20 mark. I mean I'm
tight, dude... any impression to the contrary will have come from the short-handed games we've played (I think 20% is a little too rocky for 6-handed, I'll be up around the 35% mark there)... or from our heads-up play... where you just don't fold the small blind if you can help it
