Quote:
Originally Posted by PEter Gibney
Clearly your continuation bets are larger than mine! I've taken the 1/2 pot bet size directly from Harrington, and found it useful. Obviously you should vary the size here and there, but I like the 1 in 3 success rate to break even. I'll assume, since you haven't specified, that your continuation bets are more around the size of the pot. While this further reduces your opponent's calling odds, it's true also that not every continuation bet can succeed. Consider the stipulations of your article - AJ, raised pot, flop no help, OOP. The continuation bet is made since you were the pre-flop aggressor. If the continuation bet is going to succeed, I think it will succeed if it is half the pot or 5 times the pot. Likewise if it is going to fail. Note that when I say this, I'm referring to the ideal flop for a continuation bet, something like T 6 2 rainbow. If your opponent has, say, AQ, what bet can they call? Your larger continuation bet seems to me unnecessary. Conversely, if your opponent has flopped a set of sixes, I don't really see where you can make any bet that will win the pot. Even if you have the discipline to give it up when your CB is called, it's still more money than you would have spent betting half the pot, with the same result. Again for this point I am assuming the opponent is netiher particularly good nor particularly aggressive, either of which would give me pause before making that bet.
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Some v.good points Pete.
Personally (6-max cash game player) I think betting half the pot is too small a continuation bet. In tournaments I guess its different, because pot commitment is a much bigger factor. But in a cash game, I think people are too quick to call a continuation bet with any kind of hand, because they recognise it as just that...an obligatory continuation bet. Because of this I tend to be that bit more aggressive as many players could be calling with 2nd pair or worse. Another decent turn bet is usually enough to shake them off the pot, as they were calling to test you, and you answered back...enough strength is represented to give your hand credibility.
I think you raise some very valid points about the necessity to bet when you dont hit, as a means of encouraging action when you do.
The good thing about continuation betting (and being the preflop aggressor) is that you control the action, and you control your involvement in the hand. Whether a player has flopped the nuts, or absolute air, the standard play is almost always to check to the preflop aggressor. This means that if you are called, you can usually take a free river if you want to, purely because a player who feels they have a strong hand is likely to put far too much dependancy on the value of deception.